Future of Transactions Research Brief

November 15, 2010

Future of Money: Currencies, Transactions and Lending
Timeframe: January 2010 - March 2011
University of Houston, Strategic Foresight Masters Program

Updated: April 6, 2011

Research Overview

How is information technology changing the physical and cultural way we borrow and lend money? What form will our money take? As many game worlds create their own currencies, will these virtual currencies ever be widely traded and transacted in the “real world”?

This forecast will look at technological and cultural changes in financial money lending, alternate and virtual currencies and how money will be exchanged in 2025. The focus will primarily be in consumer and small business arenas within a global marketplace. It will not include comprehensive corporate lending practices and governmental fiscal policies.

Key Take Aways

Technology is transforming transaction processing. E.g. especially with mobile technologies. By extending currency/payment possibilities as well as "payment" processing systems.
Alternate and complimentary currencies are entering an active experimental phase. I posit this is an emerging phenomena to counteract our current extreme efficiency model as described in Lietaer's article below.
Virtual currencies (gaming e.g. WoW, Linden, Facebook) are in early phases, and I have identified a key variable that shows the success of such currencies. Time banks and other alternate currencies success also falls under this potential key variable.
The state of lending and borrowing is undergoing some dramatic shifts commensurate with shifting cultural mindsets.

Trends Shaping the Future of Transactions

View more presentations from heathervescent.

Background Research

Highly relevant and interesting, but not exclusive. A detailed bibliography is forthcoming.

Lietaer, Bernard. "Is Our Monetary Structure a SystemicCause for Financial Instability? Evidenceand Remedies from Nature" Journal of Future Studies

Scenarios

Please note: not all scenarios are publicly available at this time (Nov 2010)

Future of Currency (Spring 2010): Alternative Currencies Consortium
Future of Currency (Spring 2010): Novenify: Life Extension for the Human Intelligence
Future of Currency (Spring 2010): ACC Call for Participation
Future of Transactions Scenario (Fall 2010): The Value Exchange
Future of Transactions Scenario (Fall 2010): The Dischordians
Future of Transactions Scenario (Fall 2010): Dinner with Friends, circa 2020
Future of Transactions Scenario (Fall 2010): The Mobile Wallet
Future of Transactions Study (Fall 2010): The Survey

Updates

April 6, 2011
Interested in learning the top level results? I am available to speak to your group. This research has been shared at:

Web 2.0 Expo, March 2011
Austin World Future Society Meeting, March 2011
Future of Money and Technology Summit, February 2011

Jan 13, 2011
(sent via email to research update mailing list. Email Heather to request to be added to this list.)

Thank you for participating in my survey studying The Future of Transactions in October-November 2010. The response was beyond my expectation with more than 220 participants completing the survey. I wanted to give you a brief update on the state of the research. This week (Jan 13, 2011), I have completed the majority of my 1:1 interview with almost 20 people.

Informally I have found

* Technology is transforming transaction processing. E.g. especially with mobile technologies to extend currency/payment possibilities as well as "payment" processing systems. However this technology is highly susceptible to the hype curve at this time.

* Relationships and communities are being built and strengthen through alternate (non-financial) transactions.

* Alternate and complimentary currencies are in an active experimental phase.

* Virtual currencies (gaming e.g. WoW, Linden, Facebook) are in early phases, also susceptible to hype curve dynamics.

* The state of lending and borrowing is undergoing shifts commensurate with shifting cultural mindsets.

The research shows some pretty big possibilities in their nascent stages emerging from a variety of places. I have posted a few future scenarios at the main research page: http://bit.ly/cFtEmW (this page).

I plan to have the initial reports available in 4-6 weeks (by early March 2011) and will notify you when these are available.

Thank you again for your participation and support. Please don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.